Biden, Democrats face uphill climb in Florida, polling shows

On Apr 14, 2024

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Hours after the Florida Supreme Court cleared the way for an abortion access referendum to be on the November ballot, President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign touted the state as being “in play” in 2024.

Shifting from their once cautious stance on the state, Democrats argued the measure would drive turnout, particularly among progressive and younger voters, boosting Biden’s prospects there.

But a new USA TODAY/Ipsos poll finds that Democrats continue to face significant headwinds in the Sunshine State. Passage of the ballot initiative that would expand access to abortion also faces an uphill battle.

The court thrust abortion – a winning issue for Democrats – back into the spotlight with the ballot measure ruling, along with another decision that allows for a six-week ban to go into effect May 1. The competing measure, if passed, would guarantee abortion access up to viability, often 24 weeks.

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The USA TODAY/Ipsos poll shows that 50% of Florida voters said they would be in favor of such an amendment – below the 60% majority required to pass it in November.

Still, 16% said they were either unsure or not registered to vote, a potential cache that Democrats and abortion advocates will need to tap into before election day. The poll shows Democrats face a substantial enthusiasm gap about the 2024 election compared to Republicans and former President Donald Trump, who calls Florida home, holds an eight-point lead over Biden.

Enthusiasm gap?

In an election where everything may hinge on turnout, 67% of Democrats said they were certain to vote in November, compared to 80% of Republicans.

Abortion could increase that number for Democrats, except only around two-thirds of Floridians said they were familiar with the court allowing a six-week ban to go into effect. Less than that, just half, said they knew about the opposing amendment making the ballot.

Concern for abortion or contraception fell generally along party lines.

Reproductive rights were among the top issues for Democratic voters, behind inflation or cost of living, and housing. For Republicans, the issue dropped far down the list, below things like crime and immigration.

While enthusiasm appears an uphill battle, with about seven months until the election, Shana Gadarian, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said there is still plenty of time to get voters’ attention.

“Maybe people aren’t enthusiastic about Joe Biden or Donald Trump,” she said, referring to the major parties’ presumptive presidential nominees. “But they are going to care about other issues that are going to get them out to the polls, and the candidates and the parties are going to do a lot of work to get them to understand what is at stake in this election.”

Republicans still lead in Florida

Biden’s campaign has eyes on Florida, a state waffling between red and purple.

“We definitely see…