Trump assassination attempt unlikely to have lasting impact

On Jul 17, 2024

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The bullet that former president Donald Trump said grazed his right ear was one of dozens aimed at U.S. presidents, presidential candidates and other prominent elected officials over nearly 200 years.

But Saturday’s assassination attempt, while shocking, is unlikely to have significant political or economic reverberations given the makeup of the American democratic system and the fact that it didn’t involve an incumbent head of state, researchers say.

“While it has been an event that has shaken up the nation, it’s not likely to have a great impact on either the outcome of the election or the U.S. economy,” said Zaryab Iqbal, a professor of political science and Jewish studies at Penn State University in University Park, Pennsylvania.

That’s evident, she said, in the fact that both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to rise Monday as they have over the last few weeks.

“That tells you that people recognize that this is not an event that’s going to have a lasting impact on the political or economic well-being of the nation,” Iqbal said. “At best, an event like this temporarily derails focus on key issues. But ideally, it does not impact the ultimate outcome.”

At least 15 assassination attempts or assassinations have occurred in the U.S. since 1835. Four presidents have been assassinated, as were two presidential candidates. Meanwhile, numerous other attempts have been made on the lives of current and former presidents and other elected officials.

Christopher Zorn, a colleague of Iqbal’s at Penn State, agrees that Saturday’s assassination attempt is unlikely to produce additional violence or instability.

“I think the effect will be mixed for both parties,” Zorn, a professor of political science and sociology, told USA TODAY via email. “While the event may lead to some additional support for former President Trump, it also took attention away from the intense scrutiny on President Biden and the Democratic party in the last week or two. The result may thus be to help both candidates in different ways, with the possible overall effect being relatively slight.”

In a 2008 global study, Iqbal and Zorn found that the effects of assassinations on political instability were greatest in systems without formal, regulated processes of passing down leadership roles.

“The pernicious effects of an assassination are exacerbated in states that lack a regularized means of leadership succession, and are muted by the presence of such institutions,” they wrote.

In countries that lack regulated democratic institutions in place, assassination of a head of state is viewed as the only way to voice grievances and bring about political change, they found.

By contrast, in political systems with fair, regular elections, dissatisfied factions are often content to wait things out until the next voting cycle.

“In democratic systems, when you see assassinations, they’re often the result of stochastic behaviors by disgruntled or disenfranchised individuals,” Iqbal said….